One, over the last three weeks the Euro Zone has had its share of bad times. Two, the scheduled bond sales for both Spain and Italy have been poor, and the European unemployment rate just recently hit 10.4% (the highest in 14 years).
And three, as contagion spreads and concern continues to rise about European stability, I will be looking for my opportunities to stay in front of the market.
On days like today where we get relevant rallies, I will be looking at selling the market. I want to be short at 1.3230 with a stop at 1.3320 and a limit at 1.2840.
how will forex market for next week april 16-20 2012
Ahead of the key test were days of whipsaw trading this week, which saw Europe's single currency list within a tight 2-cent range against the dollar. On Friday, the euro traded around $1.3075, only marginally lower than where it began the week.
I believe that there will be a few major pieces of Euro news that will move the market, so this trade is one that I expect to be in and out of by the end of next week, at the latest.
the euro could falter next week if Spain, the euro zone's fourth largest economy currently occupying center stage in the region's debt saga, sees its bond yields continue their upward march.
The centerpiece of traders' worries is Spain's struggle to implement public spending cuts so that the county can avoid the same contagion that befell Greece, Portugal and Ireland. In the coming week, an important test of investor sentiment comes Thursday, when Spain auctions two-and ten-year bonds at potentially higher borrowing costs.
In the coming week, policymakers are likely to voice concerns about Europe's ability to curb the selling pressure on Spanish and Italian bonds, and firewall the rest of the 17-nation currency area.
Below are entries on the economic calendar, where all listed times are Eastern Daylight Time:
Economic calender Monday april 16 2012
8:30 a.m. -- Retail sales for March. Economists expect the headline figure to advance 0.3 percent after a 1.1 percent increase in February. Although prices have been firm, auto sales weakened last month, which should act as a drag. Excluding autos, retail sales should increase 0.6 percent. Gasoline prices have continued to rise over March.
8:30 a.m. -- The Empire State Manufacturing Survey's general business conditions index is expected to moderately slip to 18.0 in April from 20.2 in March, following six straight months of gains.
9 a.m. -- February net long-term Treasury International Capital flows and foreign buying of U.S. Treasury bonds.
10 a.m. -- National Association of Home Builders housing market index.
10 a.m. -- April business inventories.
12:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto (an FOMC voter this year) speaks on "Banking and Economic Outlook" before the "A Day With the Commissioner" event in Lexington, Ky.
3:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard (an FOMC nonvoter this year) speaks on "The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy" at the George Eccles Memorial Lecture at Utah State University's Jon M. Huntsman School of Business.
Non-U.S.:
U.K. -- Consumer confidence index.
Euro zone -- February trade balance.
Economic calender Tuesday 17 2012
8:30 a.m. -- Housing starts are likely to increase to 705,000 in March from 698,000 in February. Building permits were up in February, which should translate into more housing starts. Because of the pickup in permits, economists expect single-family construction to edge higher, after falling nearly 10 percent in February. However, the underlying momentum in starts has come from multifamily construction, a trend that is expected to continue.
9:15 a.m. -- Industrial production is expected to expand 0.3 percent in March after coming in flat in February, taking the capacity utilization rate to 78.6 percent.
Non-U.S.:
U.K. - March consumer price index.
Euro zone -- March Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices .
Germany -- Center for European Economic Research's current situation survey for April.
Economic calender Wednesday april 18 2012
7 a.m. -- Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage index for the week ending April 14.
10:30 a.m. - Crude inventories for the week ending April 14.
Non-U.S.:
Japan -- March trade balance.
Euro zone -- European Central Bank current account for February.
U.K. -- March unemployment claimant count, International Labor Organization (ILO) unemployment rate, and average weekly earnings.
Economic calender Thursday april 19 2012
8:30 a.m. -- Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 14 are expected to drop to 370,000 from 380,000. Note that this claims report runs the same week the payroll survey is conducted.
10 a.m. -- Existing-home sales likely rose to 4.62 million in March from 4.59 million in February.
10 a.m. -- The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, or Philly Fed, index of current activity is expected to drop to 12.0 in April from 12.5 in March. That is consistent with a moderating pace of economic activity.
10 a.m. -- The Conference Board's leading economic index should increase 0.2 percent in March after advancing 0.7 percent in February.
Economic calender Friday april 20 2012
9 a.m. -- Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers meet in Washington.
Non-U.S.:
Germany -- March producer price index.
Germany -- Ifo business climate/current assessment/expectations survey.
U.K. -- March retail sales.
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