Retail sales, to be released Monday at 8:30 a.m. ET, starts off the week, with the real question being whether or not gasoline prices will prove a drag on consumer spending. So far this has not been the case, as January and February sales have both beaten forecasts. A lower-than-expected sales rate could also power the narrative that the pace of the recovery may be slowing, as March payrolls were weaker than expected.
The AUD/USD pair traded a limited range between 1.0270 and 1.0335, last at 1.0305 ahead of the closing bell in New York this Friday, up around 10 pips on the day, poised to close down 0.5% for the week.
“My take is that despite I still see the pair bearish, and I do expect a gap for next week opening, an upward correction may be ahead: pair stalled at the 50% retracement of its latest bullish run. I would expect such correction to reach as high as 1.0420 area before the pair resumes the downside. A break below 1.0230 on contrary, should confirm more falls and the pair may approach 1.0100 next week.”
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