forex trading outlook today - Philippine peso forecast september 2012 : The Philippine peso advanced for a second day, paring a monthly loss, after a government report showed gross domestic product expanded faster than economists estimated in the second quarter.
Growth in the $225 billion economy will probably reach the high end of an official forecast for an expansion of 5 percent to 6 percent this year, Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said yesterday. GDP increased 5.9 percent in the three months through June from a year earlier, compared with a 5.5 percent gain predicted by analysts in a Bloomberg survey, according to official figures released Aug. 30.
Philippine economic fundamentals remain strong and will continue to attract investments, Should global policy makers boost efforts to spur growth, “investors will favor countries with the best prospects and that will include the Philippines.
The peso gained 0.3 percent friday to close at 42.085 per dollar in Manila, data from Tullett Prebon Plc show. It fell 0.8 percent this month, the worst performance since May. One-month implied volatility, which measures exchange-rate swings used to price options, fell 20 basis points today to 6.10 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The government will boost spending to fund rebuilding of structures damaged by floods earlier this month, and that will further support the economy.
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will review the stance of policy, and calibrate any further action” after considering the impact of increased public spending and the global demand slowdown, Governor Amando Tetangco wrote in a mobile-phone message yesterday. Policy makers meet next on Sept. 13.
The central bank may keep the overnight borrowing rate at a record-low 3.75 percent for the rest of the year and will favor prudential measures to manage inflows, Tanuwidjaja said. The peso may strengthen to 41.80 by year-end, he predicted.
The yield on the 12.75 percent bonds due July 2014 rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 2.98 percent, according to midday fixing prices at Philippine Dealing & Exchange Corp. The rate was 2.94 percent at the end of July.
Data from the BSP showed that in July, transactions in forwards and futures in foreign currencies amounted to $4.85 billion, 37.3 percent or $2.88 billion lower compared to the transactions in June of $7.74 billion. In the same period last year, the central bank was hoarding $15.9 billion in forwards and futures in foreign currencies.
Forwards or futures as derivative instruments are used as defensive approach when a market is volatile and when there is a financial and economic crisis.
Based on the July data, the BSP’s long positions include $2.22-billion maturity of one month and $2.63 billion three months, however the three months to one year maturity has been wiped out clean. Last June, the one-year maturity amounted to $400 million.
Showing posts with label Philippines. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Philippines. Show all posts
Sunday, 2 September 2012
Friday, 30 December 2011
us dollar vs philippine peso forecast 2012
forex trading outlook today - us dollar vs philippine peso forecast 2012 : The peso may appreciate to 41 against the dollar over the next 12 months as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will likely tolerate a stronger currency to better manage inflation and turn “hawkish” in its monetary policy, according to analysts from American investment banking giant Goldman Sachs.
In a research note issued right after the local central bank’s monetary policy meeting last Thursday, Goldman Sachs said the BSP might raise its key interest rates, currently at record lows, by a total of 50 basis points in the second half of the year.
A further 100-basis-point increase in interest rates next year is anticipated by the investment bank, bringing the BSP’s overnight borrowing to 5.5 percent by end-2012 from the current 4 percent.
“The tone of the policy statement has turned more hawkish,” said the February 10 research note written by Goldman Sachs analysts Shirla Sum and Enoch Fung.
A “hawkish” central bank refers to one with a bias for potential monetary tightening as opposed to a “dovish” policy stance.
The BSP has slashed key interest rates by a total of 200 basis points since a “dovish” cycle began in December 2008. It has kept monetary settings unchanged since July 2009.
The emerging hawkish tone, Goldman Sachs said, was implied in the BSP’s statement that “the balance of risks to the inflation outlook has tilted further to the upside, with more risks expected in the near future” and “demand-side price pressures could develop in the near future as actual domestic output continues to expand above historical trend.” It also cited the BSP’s pronouncement that “a sustained strengthening of the peso should help temper the impact of imported inflation.”
Goldman Sachs also noted that the BSP’s new inflation forecast of 4.4 percent for 2011 (up from 3.6 percent) was lower than the investment bank’s forecast of 5 percent but higher than the consensus view of 4.2 percent for this year.
“We continue to expect higher global commodities prices and the close of the output gap to intensify the upward pressures on inflation,” the research paper said.
Output gap refers to the difference between the actual gross domestic product (GDP) or output of an economy and the potential GDP (efficient output). An economy that is running an output gap means it is either overworking (if the gap is positive) or underworking (if the gap is negative) its resources. A positive output gap is widely expected to lead to inflation as production and labor costs rise.
In this case, Goldman Sachs said it expected headline inflation to reach 5.6 percent by the second half of 2011, bringing the annual average inflation to 5 percent. For 2012, headline inflation is expected to average 4.8 percent. It expected core inflation to continue rising gradually over the next two years.
“We also believe the central bank is likely to tolerate appreciation pressure on the currency to mitigate the rising inflationary pressure from global commodity prices to domestic prices. This is also supported by the strong economic fundamentals and balance of payment position,” the research said.
The peso is seen trading at 43 in the next three months and 42 in the next six months before rising to 41 against the dollar over a 12-month period.
Goldman Sachs expects the Philippines to grow its GDP by 5.2 percent this year and 5.7 percent in 2012, which is more optimistic than the consensus view of 5 percent for 2011 and 2012.
In a research note issued right after the local central bank’s monetary policy meeting last Thursday, Goldman Sachs said the BSP might raise its key interest rates, currently at record lows, by a total of 50 basis points in the second half of the year.
A further 100-basis-point increase in interest rates next year is anticipated by the investment bank, bringing the BSP’s overnight borrowing to 5.5 percent by end-2012 from the current 4 percent.
“The tone of the policy statement has turned more hawkish,” said the February 10 research note written by Goldman Sachs analysts Shirla Sum and Enoch Fung.
A “hawkish” central bank refers to one with a bias for potential monetary tightening as opposed to a “dovish” policy stance.
The BSP has slashed key interest rates by a total of 200 basis points since a “dovish” cycle began in December 2008. It has kept monetary settings unchanged since July 2009.
The emerging hawkish tone, Goldman Sachs said, was implied in the BSP’s statement that “the balance of risks to the inflation outlook has tilted further to the upside, with more risks expected in the near future” and “demand-side price pressures could develop in the near future as actual domestic output continues to expand above historical trend.” It also cited the BSP’s pronouncement that “a sustained strengthening of the peso should help temper the impact of imported inflation.”
Goldman Sachs also noted that the BSP’s new inflation forecast of 4.4 percent for 2011 (up from 3.6 percent) was lower than the investment bank’s forecast of 5 percent but higher than the consensus view of 4.2 percent for this year.
“We continue to expect higher global commodities prices and the close of the output gap to intensify the upward pressures on inflation,” the research paper said.
Output gap refers to the difference between the actual gross domestic product (GDP) or output of an economy and the potential GDP (efficient output). An economy that is running an output gap means it is either overworking (if the gap is positive) or underworking (if the gap is negative) its resources. A positive output gap is widely expected to lead to inflation as production and labor costs rise.
In this case, Goldman Sachs said it expected headline inflation to reach 5.6 percent by the second half of 2011, bringing the annual average inflation to 5 percent. For 2012, headline inflation is expected to average 4.8 percent. It expected core inflation to continue rising gradually over the next two years.
“We also believe the central bank is likely to tolerate appreciation pressure on the currency to mitigate the rising inflationary pressure from global commodity prices to domestic prices. This is also supported by the strong economic fundamentals and balance of payment position,” the research said.
The peso is seen trading at 43 in the next three months and 42 in the next six months before rising to 41 against the dollar over a 12-month period.
Goldman Sachs expects the Philippines to grow its GDP by 5.2 percent this year and 5.7 percent in 2012, which is more optimistic than the consensus view of 5 percent for 2011 and 2012.
Sunday, 18 December 2011
philippines peso forecast 2012
forex trading outlook today philippines peso forecast 2012 : Predicting the exchange rate of US Dollar and Philippine peso is important for those people that are living in the Philippines that are depending on the US dollar. Common examples are the expats or families with members working abroad and sending them US dollar on a monthly basis.
S&P 500 current trend (blue line) based on the above data suggest that it is reaching the resistance level of 10% to 20%. This implies that there is a strong possibility the S&P 500 will go down (incoming bear market) in the coming months starting from October 2011 to early part in 2012. This is good news for those depending on the US dollar in the Philippines; it means that if the S&P 500 will go down, the exchange rate will go up! So how much will be the expected increase in exchange rate in the coming months in 2011 to 2013?
Based on the data, when S&P500 peaks out at 10% to 20% resistance level which can happen in the later part of 2011 to early part of 2012, this also relates to lowest exchange rate that can happen in 2011, which is around 38 pesos to 40 pesos per dollar. What will happen after this; is that the exchange rate bounces upward in response to the S&P500 bear market.
The Philippine peso to US Dollar will climb from 40pesos starting in late 2011/early 2012 to 50 to 53pesos two years after which will realize in late 2012 to early 2013. Based on the analysis,
HSBC is partially correct that the Philippine peso will indeed go down to around 38 to 40 pesos. But the above data analysis says it will climb much harder to as much as 50 to 53 pesos per dollar starting in the late 2012. This is just an analysis and everything can go wrong here. Take this information at your own risk. As a disclaimer in any financial forecast, past historical data is not an indicative of future results.
S&P 500 current trend (blue line) based on the above data suggest that it is reaching the resistance level of 10% to 20%. This implies that there is a strong possibility the S&P 500 will go down (incoming bear market) in the coming months starting from October 2011 to early part in 2012. This is good news for those depending on the US dollar in the Philippines; it means that if the S&P 500 will go down, the exchange rate will go up! So how much will be the expected increase in exchange rate in the coming months in 2011 to 2013?
Based on the data, when S&P500 peaks out at 10% to 20% resistance level which can happen in the later part of 2011 to early part of 2012, this also relates to lowest exchange rate that can happen in 2011, which is around 38 pesos to 40 pesos per dollar. What will happen after this; is that the exchange rate bounces upward in response to the S&P500 bear market.
The Philippine peso to US Dollar will climb from 40pesos starting in late 2011/early 2012 to 50 to 53pesos two years after which will realize in late 2012 to early 2013. Based on the analysis,
HSBC is partially correct that the Philippine peso will indeed go down to around 38 to 40 pesos. But the above data analysis says it will climb much harder to as much as 50 to 53 pesos per dollar starting in the late 2012. This is just an analysis and everything can go wrong here. Take this information at your own risk. As a disclaimer in any financial forecast, past historical data is not an indicative of future results.
Monday, 5 December 2011
Philippines Remittances forecast 2012
forex trading outlook today - Philippines Remittances forecast 2012 : Remittances are seen to further grow by 5 percent in 2012, as demand for Filipino labor by employers in various parts of the globe remains robust.
This is according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, which said that money to be sent by migrant Filipinos may hit at least P21.105 billion in 2012 from the estimated P20 billion in 2011.
The 5-percent growth rate in remittances in 2012 would actually be a slowdown from the estimated 7-percent rise this year.
Quoting data from the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA), the central bank said the rising demand for Filipino workers in alternative labor markets compensated for the adverse impact on remittances by the weak US and eurozone economies.
Monetary authorities said remittances in 2012 would thus continue to support the consumption of Filipino households that has been one of the key drivers of the economy.
Latest remittance data from the BSP showed that money from migrant Filipinos amounted to $14.8 billion in the first nine months of the year, up 7.1 percent year on year.
The Philippines, with more or less 10 million Filipino migrants, is the fourth-biggest remittance-receiving countries, next to China, India and Mexico.
The BSP said remittances fueled growth of the economy so far this year, which grew by 3.6 percent in the first three quarters from a year ago. Economists said that if not for the rising remittances, which help consumer spending, the economy’s growth could have been slower.
Meantime, the BSP said that aided by remittances, the country’s balance of payments (BOP) for 2012 would likely post a surplus to the tune of $2.8 billion again.
BOP is the difference between the inflows and outflows of foreign currencies, led by the US dollar. A surplus indicates that the inflows, composed largely of remittances and export earnings, are more than the outflows that are led by payments for imported goods and foreign debts.
A surplus in the BOP increases the country’s overall reserves of foreign exchange, or the gross international reserves (GIR), which currently stand at about $75.8 billion, as of the end of October.
GIR indicates the country’s ability to service its foreign currency-denominated liabilities, such as payment for imported goods and services, and payment of foreign debts.
The projected BOP surplus for 2012, however, is less than the estimated $10 billion for this year. The decline is anchored on expectations that export earnings may drop further as the economic woes in the United States and the eurozone persist, although they are seen to somewhat abate.
This is according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, which said that money to be sent by migrant Filipinos may hit at least P21.105 billion in 2012 from the estimated P20 billion in 2011.
The 5-percent growth rate in remittances in 2012 would actually be a slowdown from the estimated 7-percent rise this year.
Quoting data from the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA), the central bank said the rising demand for Filipino workers in alternative labor markets compensated for the adverse impact on remittances by the weak US and eurozone economies.
Monetary authorities said remittances in 2012 would thus continue to support the consumption of Filipino households that has been one of the key drivers of the economy.
Latest remittance data from the BSP showed that money from migrant Filipinos amounted to $14.8 billion in the first nine months of the year, up 7.1 percent year on year.
The Philippines, with more or less 10 million Filipino migrants, is the fourth-biggest remittance-receiving countries, next to China, India and Mexico.
The BSP said remittances fueled growth of the economy so far this year, which grew by 3.6 percent in the first three quarters from a year ago. Economists said that if not for the rising remittances, which help consumer spending, the economy’s growth could have been slower.
Meantime, the BSP said that aided by remittances, the country’s balance of payments (BOP) for 2012 would likely post a surplus to the tune of $2.8 billion again.
BOP is the difference between the inflows and outflows of foreign currencies, led by the US dollar. A surplus indicates that the inflows, composed largely of remittances and export earnings, are more than the outflows that are led by payments for imported goods and foreign debts.
A surplus in the BOP increases the country’s overall reserves of foreign exchange, or the gross international reserves (GIR), which currently stand at about $75.8 billion, as of the end of October.
GIR indicates the country’s ability to service its foreign currency-denominated liabilities, such as payment for imported goods and services, and payment of foreign debts.
The projected BOP surplus for 2012, however, is less than the estimated $10 billion for this year. The decline is anchored on expectations that export earnings may drop further as the economic woes in the United States and the eurozone persist, although they are seen to somewhat abate.
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