Sunday, 24 June 2012

Currency market outlook june 25 2012

forex trading outlook today - Currency market outlook june 25 2012 : Currency markets got off to a subdued start on Monday, with the safe-haven U.S. dollar holding on to most of last week's gains ahead of another European summit that could take the region a step closer to containing its debt crisis.

The dollar index, which rallied some 1-percent last week, was at 82.358, not far off a peak of 82.469 set on Friday. Against the yen, the greenback edged up to a two-month high at 80.63 versus 88.44 late in New York on Friday.

A meeting of German, French, Italian and Spanish leaders on Friday saw Germany agree to a 130 billion euros ($156 billion) package to revive growth, but little on a more flexible use of Europe's rescue funds.

The only market-positive news came from the European Central Bank, which has started to accept a wider range of collateral in its lending operations in a move designed specifically to help ease the stress in Spain's banking sector.

The euro stood at $1.2541 versus $1.2563 late in New York on Friday. Traders said there was solid buying interest from central banks at $1.2520 and sell-stops at $1.2500. But a break below $1.2520 could open up the way to a test of $1.2440.

Commodity currencies were finding their footing after last week's decline. The Australian dollar traded at $1.0045 , having plumbed a trough at $1.0008 on Friday. Good support is seen at $0.9979, the 38.2 percent retracement of its June 1-20 rally.

There are no major economic data in Asia on Monday, leaving the focus squarely on developments in Europe and the June 28-29 meeting of euro zone leaders, where Greece will ask for the terms of its 130-billion-euro bailout to be loosened.

Analysts at Barclays Capital expect the summit will yield more strong rhetoric in support of a roadmap towards tighter fiscal integration, rather than the end point itself.

"This may disappoint markets to some extent. We prefer remaining long USD over the week especially against European currencies," they wrote in a note.

A visit to Athens on Monday by officials from Greece's "troika" of lenders - the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund has been canceled as Greece's new prime minister and incoming finance minister have both been taken ill.

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