Tuesday, 1 May 2012

USD-JPY prediction may 2 2012

forex trading outlook today - USD-JPY prediction may 2 2012, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change figure : While general consensus was pointing to a drop from 53.4 to 53.0 in April, actual US ISM manufacturing data revealed a strong improvement to 54.8. The greenback is rallying against its counterparts, with the USD/JPY rising back above the 80.00 psychological level to trade around 80.19 highs.

“The downtrend bottomed at 79.63 and I expect a break through 79.92 to confirm a reversal for 80.50, en route to 81.80”, wrote Deltastock.com analyst Stoyan Mihaylov.

After taking losses against most of its main currency rivals throughout the overnight and morning sessions today, the USD was able to stage a mild recovery following a better than expected US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The news resulted in a spike of over 30 pips for the USD/JPY, bringing the pair back above the psychologically significant 80.00 level. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was able to move up over 50 pips reaching as high as 0.9087.

Turning to tomorrow, all eyes will likely be on the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change figure, scheduled to be released at 12:15 GMT. The ADP figure is considered an accurate predictor of Friday’s all important Non-Farm Payrolls figure, and consistently leads to market volatility. At the moment, analysts are forecasting tomorrow’s news to come in at 178K, well below last month’s figure. If true, the dollar may reverse the gains it made today. That being said, the ADP figure has proven notoriously difficult to predict. If tomorrow’s news comes in above analyst forecasts, the dollar may be able to extend today’s bullish momentum going into the second half of the wee

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