Tuesday, 8 May 2012

Effect Spain will nationalise BFA-Bankia on euro

forex trading outlook today Spain will nationalise BFA-Bankia on May 11 2012, EUR/USD forecast may 8 2012, Germany Industrial production today may 8 2012 : On Monday EUR/USD decreased significantly with 140 pips. The European currency depreciated from 1.3093 to 1.2954 yesterday, but then bounced, matching the negative Interbank sentiment projection at almost -4%, closing the day at 1.3049. This morning the euro is trading quietly and within yesterday's range for now.

Spain will nationalise BFA-Bankia on May 11 - El Confidencial. The government will nationalise Bankia and its parent BFA. Deloitte refused to sign off on BFA's accounts. EUR7bln of CoCos bought by state-run FROB will be 1 part of the plan - BBG.

On FX, EUR/USD under heavy selling pressure from Londoners, who return from their Early May holiday yesterday. Talks of broad based selling, pushing EUR/USD to day lows around 1.3013-15, from 1.3030-35, clearing good bids - rumours supranational, Swiss - 2-way interest, sovereign bids at 1.3020. More bids at 1.2980-00. Concerns over Spanish banks as government prepares to use public funds to weigh on EUR, EUR/Crosses - despite initial positive reactions yesterday in banking and eurozone stocks. Good offers from sovereign, Swiss supranationals on rallies to 1.3080-1.3100. While US funds, Londoners, UK clearers good sellers, with US stock futures turning negative.

On the 1-hour chart new downward channel gas formed, while on the 3-hour chart quotes broke down of the trading range. Break above the nearest resistance and yesterday's top at 1.3093 may trigger further strengthening of the euro. Going below yesterday's bottom and first support at 1.2954, however, would confirm continuation of the bearish trend, towards next objective downwards 1.2838.

Today's focus is on Germany Industrial production at 10 GMT.

Quotes are moving just bellow the 20 and 50 EMA on the 1-hour chart, indicating slim bearish pressure. The value of the RSI indicator is negative and calm, MACD is neutral and quiet, while CCI has thinly crossed down the 100 line on the 1-hour chart, giving over all neutral to light short signals.

Technical resistance levels: 1.3093 1.3210 1.3335
Technical support levels: 1.2954 1.2838 1.2712

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