NIESR prediction UK economic will to recession 2014

forex trading outlook today - NIESR prediction UK economic will to recession 2014, uk economic forecast 2013-2014, UK economy prediction 2013-2014 : The UK has narrowly avoided a return to recession, an influential think-tank predicted yesterday, but warned the economy will remain “depressed” until 2014.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) believes the economy scraped growth of 0.1% in the first quarter of 2012 following a 0.3% fall in the previous three months.

That would mean the UK has dodged another recession – defined as two quarters in a row of declines – disproving a recent gloomier prediction from another think-tank, the OECD, which forecast a 0.1% decline.

But NIESR warned the recovery will not properly take hold until 2013 and said the economy will remain “depressed” until 2014 when output will finally reach the pre-recession peak it last hit in 2008. That would mean the recovery from recession will take longer than at any time in the past 100 years, including the 1970s or the 1930s.

NIESR uses the term depression differently to many other economists, who take it to mean a severe and prolonged recession.

It said the period of weak growth would leave the UK’s output gap – the amount the economy’s production levels fall beneath its potential – will increase in coming months.

It said: “These data suggest the UK economy has avoided a technical recession.

“But we do expect this economic weakness to be temporary, with the recovery taking hold in 2013.”

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