Saturday, 3 March 2012

Mexico peso outlook week march 5 - 9 2012

forex trading outlook today - Mexico peso outlook week march 5 - 9 2012 : Mexico's peso closed little changed versus the U.S. dollar Friday as optimism over the direction of the U.S. economy overcame risk fears out of Europe.

But the Mexican currency faces a new test next week as Greece hits a deadline for a voluntary bond exchange with creditors.

The dollar was quoted in Mexico City at MXN12.7560 versus the Thursday close of MXN12.7555, according to Infosel. For the week, the peso gained about 1.1% against the dollar. The peso came under pressure early Friday as the euro slipped against the greenback. During the session, there were signs of economic softening in Germany and Spain, and European Union leaders signed a budget discipline pact that could affect demand.

Still, the peso held on against the dollar and briefly broke below MXN12.75 support. A local trader said the USDMXN support now moves to 12.68, which the peso may see in coming sessions.

The trader said the peso is being helped by generally positive economic news coming out of the U.S., which buys 80% of Mexico's exports. "We may be seeing some decoupling of the peso from what's going on in the euro zone," he said, adding that Brazil's push to weaken the real through taxes and other measures may also push investors to move their money to the free-floating peso.

The local Base brokerage said the peso is likely to see increased volatility in the coming week due to next Friday's deadline for creditors to participate in a voluntary debt exchange with Greece and take a 53.5% writedown.

Should Athens fail to attract the vast majority of debtors to accept the deal, it may have to force them to do so, which could kick in credit-default swaps and a spike in risk fears. Base said it sees pressure for a weaker peso next week, but only temporarily.

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