Last month a +0.6 positive deviation didn't move the GBPUSD much initially but about after 10 minutes the pair did move up about 40 pips over the next 20 minutes until the top of the hour 5am EST or 10am GMT. The market did expect a worse figure and the Pound did sell off overnight thru the Asian session until the news was released some 120 pips from 1.5750 until 1.5630, but as the release was not as bad as many expected it could be, the +0.6 was enough for some of the "sell the rumor" trades to close and take profit.
This actually happened about half an hour before the release. So watch out for a rumor or leak lead move to occur, in which case you maybe able to tighten up the triggers in the other way...ie if GU sells off before the release you can tighten the buy triggers. In the past triggers as tight at +/-0.8 have worked but as volume is still light, it is not advisable to use these. Something like +/-1.2 is better or even +/-1.5 but remember to tighten up if there is a rumor lead move as mentioned above.
The figure of 50 is the bull/bear line and most European countries are below 50 at the moment. If there is a print above 50 it would be a big relief and the pair will rally nicely, so use that 2nd trigger at 50 to catch that unless a leak of a higher release moves the pair before the release.
-If it comes out at +48.5 or more, GBP/USD should rally 40-70 pips.
-If it comes out at +46.0 or less, GBP/USD should drop 40-70 pips.
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