forex trading outlook today - GBP-USD trading forecast 2012 : The British pound continued to traded within early established range in line with our expectations, we are keeping our count that the rise from 1.0520 (Feb 1985) to 2.0100 (September 1992) is seen as (A), the decline to 1.3682 is labeled as (B) and (C) wave rally has ended at 2.1162 (9 Nov, 2007) which is also the top of larger degree circle wave B. The selloff from there is a 5-waver with wave 3 ended 1.3500 and wave 4 has either ended at 1.7044 or is still unfolding in a triangle, in either case, upside should be limited to 1.6160-70 and resistance at 1.6747 would hold, bring another decline to 1.5000, then 1.4700 but a sustained breach below support at 1.4228 is needed to signal the wave 5 has taken place for weakness to 1.4000, then retest of said support at 1.3500.
On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 1.6000 and renewed selling interest should emerge below 1.6160-70, bring such decline to aforesaid downside targets. Only a monthly close above resistance at 1.6747 would signal the wave 4 is still unfolding and a stronger rebound to 1.6900 would follow but price should falter well below resistance at 1.7044, bring another selloff in late 2012. In the event cable rises above said resistance at 1.7044, this would risk a stronger retracement of the decline from 2.1162 to 1.7200 and possibly towards 1.7330-35 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 2.1162-1.3500) before prospect of another selloff. (source http://www.actionforex.com )
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