forex trading outlook today philippines peso forecast 2012 : Predicting the exchange rate of US Dollar and Philippine peso is important for those people that are living in the Philippines that are depending on the US dollar. Common examples are the expats or families with members working abroad and sending them US dollar on a monthly basis.
S&P 500 current trend (blue line) based on the above data suggest that it is reaching the resistance level of 10% to 20%. This implies that there is a strong possibility the S&P 500 will go down (incoming bear market) in the coming months starting from October 2011 to early part in 2012. This is good news for those depending on the US dollar in the Philippines; it means that if the S&P 500 will go down, the exchange rate will go up! So how much will be the expected increase in exchange rate in the coming months in 2011 to 2013?
Based on the data, when S&P500 peaks out at 10% to 20% resistance level which can happen in the later part of 2011 to early part of 2012, this also relates to lowest exchange rate that can happen in 2011, which is around 38 pesos to 40 pesos per dollar. What will happen after this; is that the exchange rate bounces upward in response to the S&P500 bear market.
The Philippine peso to US Dollar will climb from 40pesos starting in late 2011/early 2012 to 50 to 53pesos two years after which will realize in late 2012 to early 2013. Based on the analysis,
HSBC is partially correct that the Philippine peso will indeed go down to around 38 to 40 pesos. But the above data analysis says it will climb much harder to as much as 50 to 53 pesos per dollar starting in the late 2012. This is just an analysis and everything can go wrong here. Take this information at your own risk. As a disclaimer in any financial forecast, past historical data is not an indicative of future results.
S&P 500 current trend (blue line) based on the above data suggest that it is reaching the resistance level of 10% to 20%. This implies that there is a strong possibility the S&P 500 will go down (incoming bear market) in the coming months starting from October 2011 to early part in 2012. This is good news for those depending on the US dollar in the Philippines; it means that if the S&P 500 will go down, the exchange rate will go up! So how much will be the expected increase in exchange rate in the coming months in 2011 to 2013?
Based on the data, when S&P500 peaks out at 10% to 20% resistance level which can happen in the later part of 2011 to early part of 2012, this also relates to lowest exchange rate that can happen in 2011, which is around 38 pesos to 40 pesos per dollar. What will happen after this; is that the exchange rate bounces upward in response to the S&P500 bear market.
The Philippine peso to US Dollar will climb from 40pesos starting in late 2011/early 2012 to 50 to 53pesos two years after which will realize in late 2012 to early 2013. Based on the analysis,
HSBC is partially correct that the Philippine peso will indeed go down to around 38 to 40 pesos. But the above data analysis says it will climb much harder to as much as 50 to 53 pesos per dollar starting in the late 2012. This is just an analysis and everything can go wrong here. Take this information at your own risk. As a disclaimer in any financial forecast, past historical data is not an indicative of future results.
No comments:
Post a Comment