forex trading outlook today - South African economic growth outlook 2012 : JOHANNESBURG -- The World Bank cut its forecast for South African growth Tuesday as Africa's largest economy struggles to trade with weakened global partners, particularly in its largest export market--the European Union.
The bank now expects South Africa's gross domestic product to expand 3.2% this year, down from the 3.5% expansion it forecast in June.
That is still above forecasts from the International Monetary Fund and South Africa'sReserve Bank, both of which said this month that South African growth is likely to be just 3% this year.
In a biannual update on South Africa's economy, the bank said that growth in 2012 and 2013 would likely be 3.1% and 3.7% respectively, down from the 4.1% and 4.4% forecast in June.
Its forecast differentiates the bank from the IMF and South African officials in predicting that growth will be lower next year than in 2011, a bet that the euro-zone debt crisis could further hurt global conditions, said World Bank economist Sandeep Mahajan.
"These things play out with a lag, so any problems that Europe has from here on will have a lag of several months before it starts hitting South Africa and other countries," Mahajan said.
The outlook doesn't bode well for South Africa's efforts to cut into a 25% official unemployment rate, the bank said.
Exacerbating the problem is little progress in bridging South Africa's "dual economy," a term the bank and economists often use to describe the gulf between the country's very developed financial and mining industries, and millions of unemployed and impoverished citizens with little hope of finding steady work.
"South African banks, in most parts, still lack the business model to bridge the dual-economy divide," the report said.
The World Bank also examined South Africa's efforts to encourage "green" growth, or industrial and infrastructure expansion that cause relatively low greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impact.
The biggest step to cutting emissions will be to reduce the amount of power the country draws from coal, which makes up 70% of the supply, the bank said.
Michael Toman, a research manager at the bank who also worked on the report, said upgrading South Africa's relatively old stock of power plants and industrial equipment would also significantly reduce emissions. "There's room in the industrial sector for improvements," he said.
South Africa's gross domestic product 2012, South Africa inflations 2012, South Africa eonomic 2012
The bank now expects South Africa's gross domestic product to expand 3.2% this year, down from the 3.5% expansion it forecast in June.
That is still above forecasts from the International Monetary Fund and South Africa'sReserve Bank, both of which said this month that South African growth is likely to be just 3% this year.
In a biannual update on South Africa's economy, the bank said that growth in 2012 and 2013 would likely be 3.1% and 3.7% respectively, down from the 4.1% and 4.4% forecast in June.
Its forecast differentiates the bank from the IMF and South African officials in predicting that growth will be lower next year than in 2011, a bet that the euro-zone debt crisis could further hurt global conditions, said World Bank economist Sandeep Mahajan.
"These things play out with a lag, so any problems that Europe has from here on will have a lag of several months before it starts hitting South Africa and other countries," Mahajan said.
The outlook doesn't bode well for South Africa's efforts to cut into a 25% official unemployment rate, the bank said.
Exacerbating the problem is little progress in bridging South Africa's "dual economy," a term the bank and economists often use to describe the gulf between the country's very developed financial and mining industries, and millions of unemployed and impoverished citizens with little hope of finding steady work.
"South African banks, in most parts, still lack the business model to bridge the dual-economy divide," the report said.
The World Bank also examined South Africa's efforts to encourage "green" growth, or industrial and infrastructure expansion that cause relatively low greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impact.
The biggest step to cutting emissions will be to reduce the amount of power the country draws from coal, which makes up 70% of the supply, the bank said.
Michael Toman, a research manager at the bank who also worked on the report, said upgrading South Africa's relatively old stock of power plants and industrial equipment would also significantly reduce emissions. "There's room in the industrial sector for improvements," he said.
South Africa's gross domestic product 2012, South Africa inflations 2012, South Africa eonomic 2012
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