USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis forecast for September 12-16, 2011 : The USD/JPY pair was able to penetrate the consolidated area which the pair has been trading within for three weeks, as the strong dollar and the disappointing BOJ meeting opened the way for the greenback to cover some of its losses against the Japanese currency.
The continuation of the EU debt crisis and the current slowdown in the U.S. economy increased fears among investors and drove them to abandon any risky investments and focus on the greenback and the yen.
The latest BOJ meeting did not give investors what they really want, as the central bank kept the interest rate, asset-purchase program and credit-loan program unchanged, without mentioning any further measures or expansion in the current stimulus package.
Japan’s economy contracted during the second quarter, opening the way for more concerns regarding the negative effect of the strong yen on the nation’s recovery.
Despite the weakening yen during last week, the Japanese currency is still near its post-war levels against the dollar, increasing bets that the BOJ could intervene in the FX market for the third time this year.
The latest policy makers’ comments around the glob failed to support confidence, as fears and uncertainty dominate the global economic outlook and is forcing investors to focus on safe haven investments.
Major highlights for this week that will affect the USD/JPY pair’s trading:
Monday September 12:
On Monday at 23:50 GMT (Sunday), the Bank of Japan will release the August 4-5 Board Meeting minutes, when the Bank released extra measures to support the Japanese economy.
At 23:50 GMT,Japanwill issue the Tertiary Industry Index for July, where it is expected to show a rise of 0.2% compare to the previous reading of 1.9%.
As for the U.S. economy it will not release any fundamentals on Monday, but Fed’s Fisher will speak on monetary policy in Dallas at 20:00 GMT.
Tuesday September 13:
On Tuesday at 01:00 GMT,Japanwill release the Japanese manpower survey for the forth quarter, where the previous reading was 8.0.
The U.S. economy will report the import price index for August, where the index is expected to drop by 0.7% following the previous 0.3% rise, on the year to ease to 13.0% from 14.0%.
At 18:00 GMT the monthly budget statement for August will be released where it is expected to show a deficit of $126.0 billion from $90.5 billion.
Wednesday September 14:
The Japanese economy will release the final reading for the industrial production index for July at 04:30 GMT, where the previous reading was up by 0.6%. As for the annual reading it had a previous reading of –2.8%.
The U.S. economy will release the PPI index for August at 12:30 GMT, where the previous reading was up by 0.2% and expected at – 0.1%, while the annual reading is expected to come at 6.4% from the prior reading of 7.2%.
At 12:30 GMT, the U.S. economy will release the advanced retail sales for August, where the previous reading was 0.5% and expected to come at 0.2%.
The U.S. business inventories for June will be released at 14:00 GMT, where it had a previous reading of 0.3% and expected to come at 0.5%.
Thursday September 15:
The United States will continue with more inflation figures at 12:30 with the August CPI where inflation is expected to have eased with 0.2% gain on the month following 0.5% and on the year to hold at 3.6%. Core inflation is expected steady on the month with 0.2% rise and on the year to tick slightly higher to 1.9% from 1.8%.
At the same time, the current account for the second quarter is due, where the deficit might have expanded to $121.5 billion from $119.3 billion in the first quarter. As for Empire Manufacturing for September the index might have recovered to -3.95 from -7.72.
Also due at 12:30 GMT, the weekly jobless claims are awaited after unexpected rising last week by 414 thousand.
At 13:15 GMT the industrial production for August is expected to have eased to 0.1% following 0.9% and the capacity utilization to hold at 77.5%.
At 14:00 GMT we have the Philadelphia fed index for September which is expected to have recovered to -15.0 from -30.7.
Friday September 16:
At 13:00 GMT, the U.S. economy will release the net long-term TIC flows for July, where the previous reading was $3.7 billion while the total net TIC flows had a previous reading of -$29.5 billion.
At 13:55 GMT, the U.S. economy will release the University of Michigan survey of consumer confidence for September, where the preliminary reading is expected to come at 56.6 from the prior reading of 55.7. (source www.fxempire.com )
The continuation of the EU debt crisis and the current slowdown in the U.S. economy increased fears among investors and drove them to abandon any risky investments and focus on the greenback and the yen.
The latest BOJ meeting did not give investors what they really want, as the central bank kept the interest rate, asset-purchase program and credit-loan program unchanged, without mentioning any further measures or expansion in the current stimulus package.
Japan’s economy contracted during the second quarter, opening the way for more concerns regarding the negative effect of the strong yen on the nation’s recovery.
Despite the weakening yen during last week, the Japanese currency is still near its post-war levels against the dollar, increasing bets that the BOJ could intervene in the FX market for the third time this year.
The latest policy makers’ comments around the glob failed to support confidence, as fears and uncertainty dominate the global economic outlook and is forcing investors to focus on safe haven investments.
Major highlights for this week that will affect the USD/JPY pair’s trading:
Monday September 12:
On Monday at 23:50 GMT (Sunday), the Bank of Japan will release the August 4-5 Board Meeting minutes, when the Bank released extra measures to support the Japanese economy.
At 23:50 GMT,Japanwill issue the Tertiary Industry Index for July, where it is expected to show a rise of 0.2% compare to the previous reading of 1.9%.
As for the U.S. economy it will not release any fundamentals on Monday, but Fed’s Fisher will speak on monetary policy in Dallas at 20:00 GMT.
Tuesday September 13:
On Tuesday at 01:00 GMT,Japanwill release the Japanese manpower survey for the forth quarter, where the previous reading was 8.0.
The U.S. economy will report the import price index for August, where the index is expected to drop by 0.7% following the previous 0.3% rise, on the year to ease to 13.0% from 14.0%.
At 18:00 GMT the monthly budget statement for August will be released where it is expected to show a deficit of $126.0 billion from $90.5 billion.
Wednesday September 14:
The Japanese economy will release the final reading for the industrial production index for July at 04:30 GMT, where the previous reading was up by 0.6%. As for the annual reading it had a previous reading of –2.8%.
The U.S. economy will release the PPI index for August at 12:30 GMT, where the previous reading was up by 0.2% and expected at – 0.1%, while the annual reading is expected to come at 6.4% from the prior reading of 7.2%.
At 12:30 GMT, the U.S. economy will release the advanced retail sales for August, where the previous reading was 0.5% and expected to come at 0.2%.
The U.S. business inventories for June will be released at 14:00 GMT, where it had a previous reading of 0.3% and expected to come at 0.5%.
Thursday September 15:
The United States will continue with more inflation figures at 12:30 with the August CPI where inflation is expected to have eased with 0.2% gain on the month following 0.5% and on the year to hold at 3.6%. Core inflation is expected steady on the month with 0.2% rise and on the year to tick slightly higher to 1.9% from 1.8%.
At the same time, the current account for the second quarter is due, where the deficit might have expanded to $121.5 billion from $119.3 billion in the first quarter. As for Empire Manufacturing for September the index might have recovered to -3.95 from -7.72.
Also due at 12:30 GMT, the weekly jobless claims are awaited after unexpected rising last week by 414 thousand.
At 13:15 GMT the industrial production for August is expected to have eased to 0.1% following 0.9% and the capacity utilization to hold at 77.5%.
At 14:00 GMT we have the Philadelphia fed index for September which is expected to have recovered to -15.0 from -30.7.
Friday September 16:
At 13:00 GMT, the U.S. economy will release the net long-term TIC flows for July, where the previous reading was $3.7 billion while the total net TIC flows had a previous reading of -$29.5 billion.
At 13:55 GMT, the U.S. economy will release the University of Michigan survey of consumer confidence for September, where the preliminary reading is expected to come at 56.6 from the prior reading of 55.7. (source www.fxempire.com )
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